Thursday, March 04, 2010

Too Big?

The Republican lawmakers trying to block health care reform (that's all of them) like to present the large stack of papers in the bill as proof that it is no good. I for one am happy to see a big pile of paperwork, although I don't think it needed to be printed in this computer age. The paperwork proves there was thought about how this reform would be implemented. It's what we like to call "transparency". It is good to have documentation. And on a computer it is easily searched for ease of viewing.

The last thing I'm going to say on this idiotic debate (hopefully) is that "they" keep telling us that America has said NO to this bill. Fox news may have said no but America has not! Most Americans are struggling to pay for health care and insurance - if we can even get it! When you say America says no - you are blatantly lying and you know it. Lies, scare tactics, and exaggerations seem to be the only way Republicans can support their agenda. And in my opinion, that says a lot about their agenda.

17 comments:

Andre said...

"When you say America says no - you are blatantly lying and you know it."

Dude...what planet are you living on? Cite me a single national poll that shows majority support for Obamacare. You can't, because there isn't one. To say that the majority of Americans do not want Obamacare, based on the long term and consistent results of the best and most scientifically sophisticated polling methodologies available to us, is simply just a "fact". To call it anything else is the lie.

Free your mind, my friend. You are viewing the world through overly ideological glasses and it's distorting your vision.

There is a reality that exists out there, and it is what it is, regardless of what we may want it to be. Acknowledging that reality is the first step towards wisdom.

Andre said...

WARNING: The links posted below may challenge your cartoon portrayal of conservative opposition to Obamacare as being all just "lies, scare tactics, and exaggerations". If thoughtful, informed, and articulate arguments against liberal ideas are too challenging to your fundamentalist liberal mind-cage, then you should probably avoid them:

Chait v. Capretta [Rich Lowry]

Jonathan Chait is one of the best liberal writers on fiscal matters, and James Capretta is one of the best conservative writers. That's why it's so instructive to compare and contrast these posts Chait and Capretta have written on Paul Ryan's critique of Obamacare. Who's more convincing? To me, it's not even close. Chait titles his post "Paul Ryan Dubunks Himself," but asserting it doesn't make it so. One of Ryan's supposed contradications or concessions is telling Ezra Klein that the federal government can't be trusted to make modest cuts and therefore we're headed toward bankruptcy. And this undermines Ryan's case and demonstrates the plausibility of Obamacare how? Contrast Chait's approach with Capretta's thoroughness and care in dismantling the Orszag and DeParle op-ed the other day and you'll see why liberals have been losing this debate.

Andre said...

Here are the links mentioned above. They didn't transfer with my post (told you I was computer illiterate):

1)Chait link: http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/paul-ryan-debunks-himself

2)Capretta link: http://healthcare.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmRmNzg2NDM4MGJiMWIzMTAzMzY1YWQ0Mjc5ZTJkYTc=

Andre said...

Didn't mean to sound so bitchy above...sometimes my rhetorical enthusiasm runs away from me (but "fundamentalist liberal mind-cage"...I like that). I hope you take all my jabs in the high spirit of good natured debate in which they are offered. (feel free to just tell me to shut the fuck up).

denbec said...

Andre, I'm going to answer your response with a question - but first, when you use words like "Obamacare" you are using a name calling technique like a child. Adults are discussing Health Care Reform. Also, it is very easy to find a poll that will support whatever side you are on. That is one thing that has been proven!

Now, my question is, since you have not offered any suggestions for fixing the problems we face in the health care field - are you saying that the system is fine just the way it is?

Thanks,

Dennis

denbec said...

Just for the record - here are some good recent statistics from a trusted polling agency - Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/126338/Obama-Retains-Trust-Congress-Healthcare.aspx

Andre said...

First of all, Gallup is hardly a trusted poll (historically it has had one of the poorest accuracy rates of all the major polls; invariably tweaked to the Left on any issue or candidate)....but that's just a quibble on my part; I asked you to produce a poll and you did. Kudos!

However, I think that it is clear that the Gallup poll, almost certainly an outlier, is the exception that proves my point: RealClearPolitics.com tracks all of the current polls and if you take a look at the list (link below) you will see that the Gallup is the only poll this year showing a net approval for the Democrat health care plan ( and that at only +3). All of the others show solid disapproval, including all of the Rasmussens ,which has been the most historically accurate poll since 2000 (Rasmussen also, by the way, happens to be a Democrat). A full two thirds of the available polls show double digit disapproval (21 out of 31).

Investigating further back in time you have to go all the way back to the beginning of Nov. to find another approving poll (again just +3) and you have to go all the way back to September to find any grouping of approving polls (including the first Rasmussen that shows any approval).

It's pretty clear, looking at the history of these polls, that the more the public finds out what's in that big pile of paperwork, the less they like it( aside from it's content, it's probably also true that many of the cynical and sleazy deals that the Democrats have had to cut to win swing votes has probably turned off a lot of people too).

Thus I hold to my original point,which was really quite simple: when the Republicans and Fox News (I know you probably think they are synonymous)claim that a majority of the people in this country do not support the current Democrat Health Care Plan (commonly referred to everywhere but here as "Obamacare") they are simply stating a matter of demonstrable fact. Now, quite obviously, it is helpful for their political agenda for them to point this out, but for you to refer to that as "blatantly lying" is just pure partisan rhetoric on your part and it is in contradiction of any objective and honest assessment of the overwhelming bulk of the available evidence; in other words, it's simply not true.

Cut & paste link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

denbec said...

Gallup polls are not trusted? Well, there you have it.

I also stick by my original opinion.

denbec said...

And by the way Andre, you did not answer my question.

Andre said...

Your're right, I was a little too harsh on Gallup...I made them sound worse than they actually are...the point that I was trying to make (and bungled) was that Gallup does not rate so highly compared to the other major players (at least in recent years). Go back and look at the last Gallup poll before any recent election and then look at the actual results after all the votes have been counted. Then do the same with the Rasmussen polls, and you will see what I mean. For example, of the top 20 pollsters in the 2008 election,ranked by virtue of their prediction of the actual vote tallies, Rasmussen was #1 for accuracy, whereas Gallup was #17.

The bigger, more relevant point here though, is that if you have 30 polls by large respected polling outfits, all clearly showing over a 2+ month period that the majority of Americans disapprove of the Democrat health care plan, while simultaneously having one poll, by a firm whose recent performance has been demonstrably less accurate than most of the other firms, showing a slightly opposite position, then to latch on to that one poll to argue that most Americans support the Democrats, is clearly absurd. In any other field of research you would be laughed out of the conversation for taking such a position (for example: if you had 30 studies showing that smoking causes cancer and one that disagreed). Furthermore, to then claim that by citing these 30 other polls the Republicans are "blatantly lying" is, to say the least, intellectually dishonest, and leads me to suspect that you are less interested in determining the truth of the issue and more interested in maintaining, at all costs, some kind of dogmatic liberal ideological orthodoxy.

It is certainly your right to do that, but truthfully, that kind of rigid thinking bores my socks off...it's one of the reasons why, over the years, I have moved from the far Left to the middle Right. It has became more and more apparent to me that so many on the Left are primarily motivated more by emotion than by intellect. If you challenge something they say and ask them to defend it they very quickly will try to change the subject (usually by answering your question with a different unrelated question). Evidence is irrelevant to them. You can put it right in front of their face and they just pretend not to see it. What they feel trumps everything. And they never, ever, admit they were wrong about anything.

It's like trying to debate with a religious fundamentalist.....actually, it is debating with a religious fundamentalist...just a big waste of time.

Am I over-reacting? Maybe, but living here in San Francisco, I'm surrounded by that sort of PC Group Think, and my patience with it gets sorely tried...

Take it easy, dude, wishing you the best, don't forget to wear your bicycle helmet, and good luck with that whole Hopey-Changey thing.

-A

denbec said...

Well Andre, if you have read any of my other articles on the subject you will know that I am a poster child for this whole debate. My opinions are based more on my personal experience rather than on any sort of polls. The people that are screaming the loudest against health care reform are comfortably insured, financially secure and likely have some financial or political stake in the status quo. Those that will benefit from the reform don't have such a big voice because they are busy looking for jobs, trying to cover their bills and praying they don't have a major health issue while they are between insurance plans.

Since you once again didn't answer the simple question I asked - hopefully I just did.

Andre said...

That's all very interesting ( no seriously...I'm not being sarcastic) but it is totally irrelevent to what we've been discussing (i.e., your baseless and slanderous charge that the Republicans are lying when they claim that most Americans don't support the Democrats current health care bill). Seriously dude, I don't understand why you can't just man-up and admit that you were wrong....afterall, you are not just disagreeing with me; ironically, you are also disagreeing with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. Both of them have, in recent public statements, offered their theories for why the majority are against them right now. Does that mean they are "blantantly lying" too?

It's like this: you and I walk into a room and sit down at a table. On the table is an apple. You point at it and shout, in an agitated and slightly hysterical manner: "That's an orange!"
I respond by saying "No, I think that's an apple."
"Oh no", you insist, "that is definatley an orange."
"Dude...I'm pretty sure that's an apple...look, I'll show you". Pulling down a volume of the Encyclapedia Brittanica, which just conveniently happens to be on the bookcase behind us, I show you the entry for "Apple", and sure enough, the illustrations and descriptions match the object sitting on the table. At this point, rather than admit that you were mistaken, you respond with "What about peaches? Huh? Why won't you talk about peaches? Are you some kind of peachaphobe or something? Well, why won't you answer my question?"

At that point I scream and jump out the window (which,I am beginning to suspect, may have been your plan all along).

denbec said...

America does want and need health care reform. The Republicans know this is true and that's why they are making a big fuss. If they really felt they had the majority opinion, they wouldn't need to be having these name calling, boisterous demonstrations trying to make it look like everyone agrees with them. It is a lie - we don't.

Furthermore, I think it is you who are comparing things incorrectly. If you listen to the President and Democratic leaders you might hear that many of us are upset that the current bill has been stripped of the primary things we want - like the public option.

If you took a poll asking "Do you agree with the current proposed bill?" You will likely get a No from a lot of Democrats. But if you ask "Does America still need health care reform?" You will get a resounding YES! We have not turned on the President or the Democratic leaders. But we may have turned on the direction the plan is headed due to Republican opposition.

If my posts on this topic have changed direction as you say, it was in direct response to your questions about polls and such. I stand by my opinion and I think I've proven it.

Andre said...

Proven it? Reread your last post. You've just come probably as far as it is idealogically possible for you to come towards admitting that I was right. You are now at least alluding to the possibility that the polls might actually be saying what you had previously adamantly denied they could possibly be saying. Ah, progress! (the part about those mythical hordes of dispirited Socialists abandoning the President over this was a cute touch...if nothing else, you've got a great sense of humor).

I've never said that "everyone" agrees with the Republicans about this issue, and they have never claimed that either. Why do you keep proffering these silly, sophormoric, straw men? What they clearly have said, and what you have dishonestly called them liars for having said, and what I'm having to repeat now(snore...) for like the umptenth time is (listen carefully) that the majority of Americans do not support the current Democrat Health Care Plan.

It's just the facts,Jack. Deal with it.

Yes, most Americans (not just Democrats, but Republicans, Independents, etc.) believe that we need some form of health care reform (duh). I've never heard any serious politician, commentator, or average-Joe, ever claim anything different. But the fact remains, that a majority of Americans do not want this current Democrat health care reform. They rightly see it as the fiscal monstrosity that it is; one that will degrade the American health care system far more than it will improve it.

And,hey -"boisterous demonstrations"? I thought that dissent was patriotic? I guess that only applies when there is a Republican in the White House, huh? I just love how liberals suddenly get all so concerned about public decorum, when the very same tactics that have been their bread and butter for decades suddenly get used effectively against them. Who was it who said: Liberals love free speech in theory, but hate it in practice? Spot on.
I assume what you were referring to was the so-called "Tea-Party" movement? Rude? Dude, have you ever been to a leftist political demonstration? Of any kind? You need to come out to San Francisco, because if you think that the behavior of the Tea-Partiers has somehow set some kind of new level of rudness in public demonstrations, then all I can say is that you have lived a very, very sheltered life.

Although, I must give you credit for one very accurate statement you just made: "If you took a poll asking "Do you agree with the current proposed bill?" You will likely get a No from a lot of Democrats."

That is certainly true in the House of Representatives (otherwise Nancy Pelosi would schedule a vote right away). Now some of those NO votes may be, as you say, because the bill isn't radical enough for some members, but I also think it's because there's even a good number of Democrat Congessmen who have enough good sense to see what a dog this bill is.

See, I can be bipartisan and even praise Democrats too. At least when they do the intelligent, responsible thing.

denbec said...

Finally! You answered the simple question. And I am done discussing this post. You may, of course, continue.

Andre said...

Gee, a Liberal running away from facts he can't deal with...why am I not surprised?

Free your mind, dude. There is a whole big world out there of alternative ideas and perspectives that your Liberal tunnel vision won't allow you to even see, let alone acknowledge. It's a shame too, because you are just impoverishing yourself (when the politicians you support aren't busy attemting to impoverish all the rest of us too).

James Capetta said...

The latest CBO projections confirm — again — that the president’s health plan would pile another unfinanced entitlement program on top of the unaffordable ones already on the federal books.

According to CBO, the new entitlement spending in the plan would cost $216 billion by 2019, and then increase by 8 percent every year thereafter. In other words, the president’s plan would stand up another health entitlement program that will grow much faster than the nation’s economy or revenue base. The changes the Democrats would make to the Senate-passed bill would make the entitlement program even more expensive.

Over a full ten years of implementation, the cost of the new entitlement spending would reach $2.5 trillion, at least, not the $1 trillion advertised by the White House.

The president and his congressional allies have suggested that the offsets they are pushing will more than cover this massive spending increase. But even a modest amount of scrutiny reveals these supposed offsets are nothing more than gimmicks and implausible assumptions.

For starters,the plan doesn’t count $371 billion in spending for physician fees under the Medicare program. The president and congressional Democrats want to spend this money, for sure. They just don’t want it counted against the health bill. That’s because they want to reserve all of the Medicare cuts in the bill as offsets for another entitlement instead of using them to pay for the problem that everyone knows needs fixing. The president says he shouldn’t have to pay for the “doc fix.” But why not? Never before did Congress move to add the cost of a permanent fix to the national debt. But that is exactly what the president now wants to do. When the cost of the “doc fix” is properly included in the accounting, all of the claimed deficit reduction from the president’s health plan vanishes.

Then there’s the “Cadillac” tax on high-cost insurance plans. Because of union pressure, the president pushed the tax back to 2018, well past the point when he will have left office. But once in place, the threshold used to determine “high-cost” will rise only with the Consumer Price Index, beginning in 2020. That means a very large segment of the middle class would get hit with the tax as the years passed. The president has shown that he is unwilling to actually collect this tax on his own watch. But he wants us to believe that we can count on a huge revenue jump over the long run because his successors will have more stomach for it than he does.

Similarly, in jury-rigging “long-term deficit reduction,” the latest plan would first increase the premium assistance subsidies paid to low- and moderate-wage families above the levels in the Senate-passed bill, but then index their value to something below the growth in premiums to give the appearance of deficit reduction in the decade after 2019. There’s no “bending of the cost-curve” here. It’s sleight of hand that, if actually implemented, would force millions of low-income families to pay ever-higher premiums every year. The Democrats don’t want to talk about that. They just want to pretend they have been serious with fiscal discipline.

The other gimmicks remain in the plan as well: The double-counting of premiums for long-term care insurance programs as an offset for the health entitlement spending. The assumption that Congress will allow Medicare reimbursement rates to fall so low that one in five hospitals and nursing homes might be forced to stop taking Medicare patients. And the expectation that somehow Congress can hand out generous new subsidies to those getting insurance through the exchanges, even though many tens of millions of others with the same resources would get no additional help for their job-based coverage.

The bottom line here has been clear for months. The bill being pushed by the president would take what’s already a very bleak budget outlook and make it much, much worse.